Sunday, August 16, 2009

Calm Before the Storm?

Curt Here...

According to the article posted below all signals seem to indicate that the US will present a new Middle East peace plan to the UN Security Council within weeks. This plan also appears that it will include some sort of time frame for implementation.

It goes on to state how important it is for Israel to coordinate this plan with the US prior to the presentation to the UN. Since the US seems to no longer have Israel's back unconditionally, it is very important to Israel that what is presented to the UN is something Israel can live with. My guess is that Israel will not like the plan that is presented, nor agree to it, and it will be very interesting to see how the International community responds to this reality.

In the meantime there all kinds of catastrophic financial rumors floating around for later this fall. From a major stock market crash to the death of the Dollar and just about everything in between. There are no articles that I will post on this blog as I am not interested in scaring everyone for no good reason (I am also not a financial expert), but if you are looking and feel led, these articles are not hard to find.

There has also been many large earthquakes around the world in the last couple of weeks and the debate over health care here in the US has been very testy. The Jews are building the sacrificial altar and the border between Israel and Lebanon has been tense to say the least.

Right now though, from a prophetic perspective we appear to be in a little bit of a lull. That is the reason I have not felt led to update this blog recently. Having said all of that I have a feeling that in a few weeks there is going to be plenty to talk about. So we watch and wait together as the storm approaches.

Stay Tuned



Israel must prepare for U.S. peace initiative

All signals indicate that within weeks, the United States will present a political initiative that may, for the first time in many years, include a plan for a Palestinian-Israeli agreement - or at least some American mediation proposals on the conflict's core issues. A responsible government must prepare well for this development. It could turn out to be an important opportunity for Israel, but it could also contain many serious risks.

Israeli governments have always recognized the supreme importance of coordinating positions with the United States. After Anwar Sadat visited Jerusalem, Menachem Begin dictated an autonomy plan to his secretary, but before presenting it to the government or the public he flew to Washington and showed it to then-president Jimmy Carter. Begin's plan, which he coordinated with Carter, was the basis for the Camp David Accords.

The presentation of an American plan, even an outline, that has not been coordinated with Israel and does not correspond to its vital interests would be catastrophic. Such a plan would quickly become a UN Security Council resolution that would pass unanimously and put Israel in an intolerable position. It's true that such a scenario is not without a precedent, but 2009 is not 1969 (the Rogers Plan) or 1982 (the Reagan Plan). If no other choice is left, Israel would fight a plan it could not live with, but everything must be done to avoid getting into such a situation in the first place.

Coordinating positions with the United States is the most urgent task for the government and the prime minister. This can be achieved if the government presents realistic and reasonable positions that can be defended. The most vital issue at this point is that of borders, which includes the settlement issue as well. It's hard to believe that it would be possible to achieve an agreement on Jerusalem or the Palestinian refugees at the earliest stage. Some observers talk about a Palestinian state with temporary borders. Israel's interest lies in a Palestinian state with temporary characteristics of sovereignty, but with permanent borders. Agreeing to permanent borders will force the Palestinians to cross the psychological Rubicon once and for all, and would give Israel borders recognized and accepted by the entire world. Such an agreement would end talk of occupation and attempts to delegitimize Israel.

For more click the link...

1 comment:

the70thweek said...

Great opinion Article here. I believe this is how it could go down.

If they won’t make peace we may have to make it for them

Nobody imagined in 1947 that the terms on which Palestine would be divided into two states could be determined in negotiations between Jews and Arabs. Comprising almost two thirds of the population and owning an even larger proportion of the arable land, Arabs had no incentive to cede half the country to a minority of recent European immigrants. If there was to be a partition, it would clearly have to be imposed.

The unfortunate reality confronting all those who seek a new two-state solution to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict is that the two sides may be no more likely to reach agreement today than they were 62 years ago....

...That is bad news for the Obama administration, which is preparing to unveil the next phase of an Israeli-Palestinian peace effort that it has made a diplomatic priority of its first term in office – raising expectations that it may struggle to meet.

Mr Obama has spent six months pressing Israel to freeze all construction on land it captured in 1967, and urging Arab states to make gestures of normalisation towards Israel. In response, Israel has rejected a settlement freeze (without which the Palestinians won’t even talk), and Saudi Arabia has flatly rebuffed the call for steps towards Arab normalisation.

The past six months have highlighted the deep suspicions on each side about the intentions of the other. Mr Netanyahu’s resistance to the settlement freeze has reinforced Palestinian belief that the Israeli leader has no intention of pursuing a credible peace. Nor is he under any pressure to do so from an electorate that no longer believes a peace agreement is possible. The Israelis, meanwhile, point to the recent Fatah conference’s reinforcement of the demand that Palestinian refugees be given the right of return (a non-starter for the Israelis), and the affirmation of the right to armed resistance as signs that the Palestinians are not interested in compromise.

So if the Obama team were simply trying to assess the potential of the two sides to reach a deal, the conclusion would be: not much. But the premise of Washington’s efforts is that the US and its allies (including Israel and the moderate Arab states) simply cannot afford to allow the conflict to remain unsettled. Thus the administration is expected soon to announce a new process of talks, possibly launched at a high-powered international conference with a strong regional dimension.

Sound familiar? Just don’t call it Annapolis II. But no, this time it may have deadlines and benchmarks, and the Americans may be in the room when the two sides talk. But the Roadmap also had benchmarks and deadlines, and the Americans were in the room at Camp David.

The idea that Messrs Abbas and Netanyahu seated across a table will succeed in clinching a deal that eluded Ehud Barak and Yasser Arafat at Camp David, and the more amenable Mahmoud Abbas and Ehud Olmert last year, requires a spectacular leap of faith and logic.....

....The European Union’s foreign policy chief and Quartet representative, Javier Solana, has suggested that any bilateral talks be given a strict deadline: if there is no agreement, the international community would put a detailed final status proposal on the table and move to adopt it through the UN Security Council.

Don’t expect Mr Solana’s proposal to feature in the next phase of the US peace effort. But if Mr Obama is to achieve more than simply keeping the two sides talking for appearances sake, he will need a Plan B – and it may well be influenced by Mr Solana’s logic.

In fact, it may well be that the only way any Israeli or Palestinian leader can sell a compromise agreement to their own electorate is if they can credibly show that they were left with no choice by an overwhelming international consensus.

For the full story go here..