Wednesday, February 27, 2008

Wheat Breaches $12 A Bushel For First Time Ever

Curt Here.....

Revelation 6:5-6

5. When he opened the third seal, I heard the third living creature call out, "Come!" I looked, and there was a black horse! Its rider held a pair of scales in his hand,

6. and I heard what seemed to be a voice in the midst of the four living creatures saying, "A quart of wheat for a day's pay, and three quarts of barley for a day's pay, but do not damage the olive oil and the wine!"

Please don't misinterpret my intentions, I am not saying that third seal has been broken, but I find it quite interesting that the price of wheat is currently skyrocketing. We are obviously not at the point where a quart of wheat cost the same as a days wages as it will someday, but it is alarming to see the wheat market move in such an upward direction. (See article below)

Keep Watching.

Wheat Breaches $12 for First Time After Biggest Gain Since 2002

By Jae Hur and Danielle Rossingh

Feb. 26 (Bloomberg) -- Chicago wheat prices rose the most in more than five years, breaching $12 a bushel for the first time as investors poured money into agricultural commodities on signs that global crop production isn't keeping pace with demand.

Global wheat stockpiles will probably fall to a 30-year low this year, while corn inventories are headed for the lowest since 1984, the U.S. Department of Agriculture said Feb. 8. Almost $1.5 billion flowed into farm commodities in the week to Feb. 19, investment bank UBS AG said in an e-mailed report yesterday. The UBS Bloomberg Constant Maturity Commodity Index of 26 raw materials has jumped 15 percent this year.

Wheat, soybeans, corn and palm oil are among commodities that have touched records this month, stoking prices of bread, pasta and noodles worldwide. The gains have driven up costs for food companies from Kellogg Co. to Premier Foods Plc and complicated efforts to curb prices in China, India and Malaysia.

``Agricultural commodities such as wheat are the place to be right now,'' Eugen Weinberg, a commodities analyst at Commerzbank AG in Frankfurt, said in an interview today. ``Production may be rising, but not at the pace necessary to keep up with increased demand.''

Wheat for May delivery rose by the daily limit of 90 cents, or 8 percent, to $12.145 a bushel in after-hours trading on the Chicago Board of Trade, the biggest one-day percentage gain since October 2002. It was at $11.615 as of 10:20 a.m. in London.

The exchange expanded its daily limit after the contract surged by the previous 60-cent limit yesterday.

Milling wheat for May delivery in Paris rose as much as 2.4 percent to 290 euros ($431) a metric ton. The contract traded at 289 euros as of 11:30 a.m. local time. Milling wheat has more than doubled in the past 12 months.

Jumping In
``Speculators keep jumping into the market as supplies are very tight globally, especially spring wheat,'' Takaki Shigemoto, an analyst with Tokyo-based commodity broker Okachi & Co. Dry conditions in some wheat-producing areas in northern China also lent support, he said.

``These kinds of rises are not sustainable,'' Commerzbank's Weinberg said, adding that wheat may fall as low as $10 a bushel next month. ``It's overdone for the short-term, however still a good investment for the long term.''

Wheat's 14-day relative strength index, used by some investors to guide trading, was at 75.395 today. A reading of 70 or more indicates prices may fall.

Stockpiles Shrinking
Record prices, led by scarce high-protein varieties, haven't deterred buyers. Export sales from the U.S., the world's largest shipper of the grain, are up 56 percent since June 1 compared with the same period a year earlier.

Global wheat stockpiles may fall to 109.7 million metric tons by May 31, while corn inventories may decline to 101.9 million tons as of Oct. 1, the U.S. government estimated Feb. 8.

U.S. inventories of wheat will drop to 272 million bushels, or 7.4 million tons, the lowest for the end of the marketing year since 1948, according to the USDA. Hard-red spring varieties, traded in Minneapolis, are in short supply as dry weather curbed output last year in the U.S. and Canada.

On the Minneapolis Grain Exchange, wheat for May delivery advanced $1.35, or 7.9 percent, to $18.4325 a bushel. The March contract, which has no limit because it is the closest to delivery, rose as high as $24.26 a bushel, after yesterday becoming the first U.S. wheat contract to top $20 a bushel.

Rising Costs
Rising prices for edible commodities are slicing into cash flows across the food industry. Fourth-quarter earnings at Kellogg Co., the largest U.S. cereal maker, fell 3.3 percent as price increases failed to keep pace with the higher expense of making Eggos, Frosted Mini-Wheat cereal and cookies.

Premier Foods, the maker of Hovis bread, fell for a second day in London trading. Premier shares slid 12.5 pence, or 13 percent, to 84.5 pence at 10:24 a.m., the steepest decline in Europe's Dow Jones Stoxx 600 Index.

The rise in wheat prices has prompted some governments, including China, to impose export taxes on grains to ensure adequate domestic supply and curb price increases.
Kazakhstan, the world's fifth-largest wheat exporter, plans to impose export tariffs from March 1, Agriculture Minister Akhmetzhan Yesimov said today.

Corn in Chicago declined as much as the daily price limit, falling for the first time in eight days, and soybeans fell for the first day in four after they reached records yesterday on signs that global crop production isn't keeping pace with demand.

Corn futures for May delivery, which reached $5.55 a bushel yesterday, fell as much as 3.7 percent to $5.27 and traded at $5.3575 as of 9:35 a.m. local time in London. Corn is up more than 17 percent this year.

Soybeans for May delivery, which rose to $14.855 a bushel yesterday, declined as much as 1.8 percent to $14.4275 and stood at $14.5575 as of 9:36 a.m. in London. The futures have gained almost 87 percent in the past year after U.S. farmers planted the fewest acres in more than a decade.


the70thweek said...

Yep, very interesting connection.

My question, which we can only speculate, is why is the olive oil and the wine "untouched"?

I could try to make a stretch that the wine is to be used in communion and in remembrance of Christ's sacrifice but I can't come up with a connection on the olive oil. Any thoughts?

Anonymous said...

70th week,

Wheat and barley prices have been skyrocketing around the globe. They are not at a days's wage here in the US, but in many countries, like Pakistan, they are approaching it.

I spent some time a few weeks ago trying to find a connection between the oil and the wine. The only speculation that I came up with that makes sense is that the passage says in some translations "do not damage the oil and the wine" Light and heat are both something that damage olive oil and wine, so either it is a cry out to protect them from damaging heat, or they are about to be damaged another way.
Olive oil is something that would be used in a future temple, they burn it in the menorah.


the70thweek said...


So your saying that is possible that the reason the oil is not damaged is because of the need for it in the future Temple? That is very intresting take and sheds some new light on that verse.

I still have always wondered why those two (wine & oil) are specifically called out to be protected.

Good comments. Thanks Leana.


Anonymous said...

Another possibility is that the Apostle John used the word "wine" to describe bio-fuel (i.e., ethanol, an alcohol based fuel) and that "oil" might refer to petroleum oil.

the70thweek said...

Another article on this topic that is worth reading.

Could we really run out of food?

As if a bear market, credit crunch, energy crisis and city financing emergency were not enough for one year, experts say the world is now facing down the barrel of the worst catastrophe of all: famine.

The very idea that the modern world could run out of food seems ludicrous, but that is the flip side, or cause, of the tremendous recent increase in the cost of raw wheat, corn, rice, oats and soybeans. Food prices are not escalating because speculators have run them up for sport and profit, but because accelerating demand in developing nations, biofuel production and poor harvests in some areas have made basic foodstuffs truly scarce.

In energy circles, folks who warn about the beginning of the end of cheap fossil fuels talk about "peak oil" as a point we have dangerously and expensively crossed. Likewise, you can now add "peak wheat" to your political and investment lexicon. And it's a lot worse.

....Most unusual about this phenomenon, according to BMO Financial Group strategist Don Coxe, is that until now, food crises in world history were regional concerns that arose from crop failures, war or pests. Once global trade of grains got going in the 19th century in a major way, food shortages in one country were ameliorated by imports, he said. What's happening now is a lack of supply everywhere at once.


Anonymous said...

The third seal (impacts 3rd world), balance (justice, upset balance), wheat & barley (essential food cereal), price rise impact, oil (petroleum oil?), wine (ethanol, biofuel?). Both oil & wine affordable by developed nations.

Anonymous said...

>I m sorry that my english so bad is, but please have a look at this 2 links, and think about these verses. Maybe it means that Europe the center of antichrist will remain untached from that famine.